Interpreting Scientific Studies

Wolverines don’t like to be teased, researcher learns at great cost!” trumpeted one recent “scientific study”, according to Jonah Goldberg writing at townhall.com. (Note: Goldberg is a right-wing journalist, but he makes a good point here.)

Angry Wolverine

Angry wolverine

His thesis is that media pundits descend on studies which state the obvious like a flock of buzzards on a heretofore overlooked, month-old carcass.

Lovingly culled from “The Irrational Inquirer” [1] is this groundbreaking study:

Incredible!There’s noOsip Grunt!A yearlong $6.5 million government study has revealed that even though a whopping 230 million people are living in the United States, there’ are certain names that not even one person has!

“It’s astounding but true,” said government researcher Norton Whole. “There are over 500 Bob Hubbaffs, thirty-odd Rance Flarths, and even three Puppy Droptunas yet there are thousands, possibly tens of thousands, of names that absolutely NO one has!”

Added the scientist: “To find out just exactly how many ‘names there are that no one has, we’ll need another $6.5 million.

Below is a list of the most common names that no one has:

  1. Micky Mantleheimer
  2. Cappy Greem
  3. Lee Duc Tranh Gumpaluna
  4. Thelmore Cleotis Wojczyk
  5. Meyer Farding
  6. Stubby Osterizer
  7. Fred-Bob Fred
  8. Debbie Hitler
  9. Vince Edwards
  10. Tawni Schleppenschlep­pen

Naturally, the watchful guardians of our tax dollars immediately pounced on this squandering of public funds:

There’s a Name forThis Tax $$$ Waste:A. Idiot BoondoggleIt took the National Science Foundation one year and $6.5 million dollars of your hard-earned tax dollars to discover that there are no Americans who have certain names.

“This is the single most disturbing thing I ever heard of,” roared Senator Jesse Helms, who spent two months reading the 1,200-page study. “Who cares how many names no one has?”

Helms was so stunned he had to sit down. The study, conducted by National Science Foundation staff researcher Norton Whole, proves something every¬body has known for years and is of no earthly value to anyone!

“Actually, proving that no one had the names only took a couple of hours at the end of the whole study,” Whole admitted to The INQUIRER. “The really time-consuming part was finding – well, I guess you call it creating – the actual names that no one has.”

“That numbskull wasted several hundred thousand hours of valuable computer time making up stupid names,” screamed Senator William Proxmire. “Who the heck cares that there’s no one named Jim-Bob Khrushchev?!”

“I don’t see why everyone’s so worked up, ” said researcher Whole. It seems to me the study very elegantly answers a number of fundamental questions that plague Americans. And don’t forget we still don’t know how many names there are that no one has. Just the 10,000 most common ones!”

Below is the list of the top 10 names that no one has. It is completely worthless.

  1. Therri Shumper
  2. Claudette Spiderbarf
  3. Retail Washington
  4. Cyline “Frodo” Fernan­dez
  5. Haystacks Singh
  6. Ellen Ayatollah Feinblatt
  7. Richard Chamberlain
  8. Muffy Reeling Moose
  9. Bryce Mortuary Jr.
  10. Dr. Che Lovehandles

-Kenny Bunkport

I don’t know what we’d do without our stalwart congressmen to watch over the public trough public resources.

Of course, the above is all in fun – but it relates to a more serious topic – that of the tendency of our media to jump on every individual study that is published as though the given study had any value whatsoever.

Around the New Year, an article started floating around the news feeds quoting a study that indicates moderate overweight might not pose a health risk, but rather that a bit of extra weight might help people live longer instead. Unlike the LA Times, The Australian pointed out that this study by Katherine Flegal of the CDC, along with a previous study by the same researcher, may be inherently flawed. While Flegal stands by her research, her inclusion of smokers and individuals with existing illnesses may invalidate the conclusions. Anyone who has taken a research and statistics class knows that data can easily be skewed to support a pre-determined conclusion.

Whether or not the study is reliable, it is in the end a single study. Go through the medical literature and the media over the last 20 years, and you’ll find countless “butter is good! / butter is bad!”, “coffee is good!” / “coffee is bad!”, “water is good!” / “8 glasses of water a day is too much!” dichotomies. Each new study, however, offers the media a chance to spin the story into something that will get eyeballs on advertising, which, sadly, seems to be their true raison d’être, rather than providing the public with reliable information. After all, who wants to wait a couple of decades before a trustworthy body of peer-reviewed, double-blind, placebo-based and randomized trials yields a generally-accepted consensus?

The moral of the story is, once again, take nothing that you hear on TV, in printed media, or on the Internet without doing your own research. It’s a lot easier just to swallow what you’re spoon-fed by any number of information outlets, all of whom have obligations to contributors or vested interest in hot-button issues, but if you do that, you’re just playing into the hands of those who would profit from controlling your thoughts.

wake_up_sheeple

XKCD Copyright Randall Munroe.

Think.


[1] The Irrational Inquirer, parody edition ©1983 by Larry Durocher and Tony Hendra

When you see one of these, they mean it.

deer-crossing

Back in 2009 I hit a coyote at 80 MPH around Carlin, NV. Did some damage to the front end of my Prius, but nothing severe – mostly plastic fairing knocked off under the left wheel well, and took out one of my fog lights.

But this would be different.

Deer Accident

You notice this is a race car, the driver is wearing a helmet, and he manages to maintain control. But that was one heck of an impact, and I’ve heard of accidents where the carcass goes straight through the vehicle, taking out the driver.

Be careful out there.

The Old Wolf has spoken.

The Religious Chain Letter

Occasionally I will get this sort of thing in my mailbox. I have to say I remember my mother typing chain letters with carbon paper and sending them to myriads of people in the 50’s… but now with electronic communication, it’s possible to annoy millions without effort or cost.


Look at this Picture Closely

Image1

The President of Argentina received this picture and called it “junk mail”: 8 days later his son died. A man received this picture and immediately sent out copies: His surprise was winning the lottery. Alberto Martinez received this picture and gave it to his secretary to make copies but she forgot to distribute it – She lost her job and he lost his family. This picture is miraculous and sacred.”

You were chosen to receive this novena (prayer).

The moment you receive it, say :

[Insert the Lord’s Prayer here]

GOD WANTED ME TO TELL YOU, It shall be well with you this coming year.

No matter how much your enemies try this year, they will not succeed.
You have been destined to make it and you shall surely achieve all your goals this year.
For all of 2013, all your agonies will be diverted and victory and prosperity will be incoming in abundance.
Today God has confirmed the end of your sufferings, sorrows and pain because HE that sits on the throne has remembered you.
He has taken away the hardships and given you JOY. He will never let you down.

I knocked at heaven’s door this morning.
God asked me, “My child! What can I do for you?”
And I said, “Father, please protect and bless the person reading this message.”

This is a Novena from Mother Theresa that started in 1952.

It has never been broken. Within 48 hours send 20 copies (Or as many as you can – God does know if you don’t have 20 people to send it to – it’s the effort and intent that counts) to family and friends.

Do not send it back to the person who sent it to you.

This is a powerful Novena. Can only help. All prayer is powerful.

Please do not break it.


Now: I have nothing against sending out good energy, or prayer. I appreciate people who exercise their faith on my behalf. But I have serious issues with this kind of email because they’re – to be charitable – a crock of .

I’m supposed to believe that

  1. I was “chosen” to receive this special communication (along with the countless other “unspecified recipients”)
  2. Some stock photo taken off the Internet is miraculous and sacred
  3. Some really bad writing can be attributed to Mother Teresa in 1952
  4. The chain has never been broken
  5. If I send it to 20 friends, I’ll have amazing luck
  6. If I don’t send it on, I’m opening myself to apocalyptic consequences, loss of job, family, life, and limb. (The idea that a prayer for the blessing of people would automatically morph into a curse if not sent onwards defies logic. Oh wait, we’re talking about religion, excuse me.)

People! In the name of anything you hold sacred or worthy of respect, if you want to send good energy to your friends, great. Pray for them privately (see Matthew 6:6 if you’ve forgotten the admonition), but please don’t forward hqiz like this. Above and beyond all the things I mentioned above, some of the folks in your address book will invariably be humanists or atheists, and you don’t want to send them to the hospital with intense pain caused by prolonged and forceful eye-rolling.

The Old Wolf has spoken.

Playing in the World Game – 2012 in review

The WordPress.com stats helper monkeys prepared a 2012 annual report for this blog. Not bad for my first year. I was most interested to see where in the world my readers were coming from. Thanks to everyone who read and/or commented – I hope to make 2013 even more interesting!

Here’s an excerpt:

4,329 films were submitted to the 2012 Cannes Film Festival. This blog had 35,000 views in 2012. If each view were a film, this blog would power 8 Film Festivals

Click here to see the complete report.

Tie One On

Hopefully people have recovered from their hangovers by now, and are ready to face the new year with aplomb and panache. For better or for worse, the necktie is still a part of the formal and business scene, and how that tie looks can say a lot. There are over 100 ways to tie a necktie, although three knots are the most commonly used. Here are the old standards, and some attention-grabbing newcomers:

Four-In-Hand

The four-in-hand – the simplest knot to tie.

Half Windsor

The Half-windsor. Always seems a bit lopsided to me.

Windsor

The full Windsor. Balanced, symmetrical, and classic.

Atlantic

Atlantic Knot

Ediety

Ediety Knot (wide blade in front)

Merovingian

Ediety knot (Merovingian knot) with narrow blade in front. To get the two-toned look, two ties need to be sewn together.

The Ediety knot (for Matrix fans, also called the Merovingian knot.) This is a doubled Atlantic knot; it can be knotted with the thin end over the wide end (top), as with the Atlantic knot, or with the wide end over the thin end to mimic the look seen in the film, with the narrow blade in front (bottom). There’s a lot of controversy on how to tie this knot – many claim that it’s a simple Atlantic, but that’s not the case. Google around, there are a number of tutorials out there – and choose the one that gives you the look you like.

Trinity

The Trinity Knot. Very sharp looking.

Eldredge

The Eldredge Knot. Unique and eye-catching.

A comprehensive list of knots is found here, although the instructions (in shorthand notation) can be confusing and look more like a solution to the Rubik’s Cube. However, if you find a knot you like, there are usually video or other tutorials available that will give you a better idea of how to proceed.

The Old Wolf has spoken.

Himalayan Road, Tibet

383403-1920x1080

Everything I can find out about this photo indicates that it’s a Tibetan landscape. No idea who took the photo, or exactly where it is. If you find a definitive attribution, let me know in a comment and I’ll update the info. Whate’er the case, it’s breathtaking.

The Old Wolf has spoken.

KFC Honey Sauce – It just keeps getting worse

Back on May 13, I posted this article about KFC’s “buttery spread” and “honey sauce,” which are neither butter nor honey. At that time I listed the ingredients on KFC’s honey substitute as:

High fructose corn syrup, sugar, honey, corn syrup, natural flavors, caramel color

However, the only thing that is constant is change, as we well know – at KFC, that change is not for the better. A packet of “honey sauce” that I brought home the other day contains:

High fructose corn syrup, corn syrup, sugar, honey, fructose, contains less than 2% of: caramel color, molasses, water, citric acid, natural and artificial flavor, malic acid.

So they’ve upped the percentage of corn syrup, decreased the percentage of honey (of which there is bound to be precious little in the first place) and added a bunch of other garbage to drive down the cost and make it taste (supposedly) more like the real thing. Given the effort of manufacturing the zombie sweetener, it makes me wonder if it would really be all that more expensive to go back to using the real thing?

The Old Wolf has spoken.

honeyspillwithcomb_dxue