Bad Business Decisions: True or Urban Legend?

A number of lists of these great “quotes” have been circulating ever since the days of fax machines, even before “forwards from Grandma.” They’re funny and great to read, but is there any truth to any of them? Let’s explore.

The most famous one that I know of has been thoroughly debunked:

“640K ought to be enough for anybody.” – Bill Gates

An analysis at Quote Investigator ended with “Since Gates has denied the quotation and the evidence is not compelling I would not attribute it to him at this time. Thanks for this difficult interesting question.

During the early days of computing, programs were often written in Assembly Language, producing very tight code that could run in minimal spaces. The original Wang v.2 word processor was designed to run on workstations with 32K of memory, even though later workstations had a standard 64K.

Wang OIS 64K Workstation

If you want apocrypha, here’s a good one. This story was told to me by a Wang Laboratories internal employee, and I can’t verify its authenticity, but having worked with Wang software and hardware for around 10 years back in the ’80s and ’90s, I would be willing to bet a steak dinner that it is true.

The Wang Word Processor, version 2, was – as mentioned above – written in Assembly language. The source code was kept on these 300MB swappable disk packs which at the time were very convenient for changing storage media.

300 MB Disk Pack
Disk Drive for use with removable packs

As the tale goes, somehow an entire rack of those disk packs got knocked over, destroying both the source code (in Assembly Language) and the backups for that impressively small and fast piece of software. It was for this reason that WP+, the next generation word processor from Wang, was entirely re-written in a slower, larger, higher level language. It emulated many features of the original and added others, but it was cumbersome and inelegant by comparison. Again, I can’t verify this 100%, but it came to me from what I consider a reliable source.

Western Union’s opinion of the telephone

Facsimile Telegram

This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.” — Purported Western Union internal memo, 1876.

Telegrams were pretty much the way to get a message from one place to another rapidly. Prior to the development of the electric telegraph system designed by Samuel Morse, optical telegraphy which used visual signals seen at a distance was one of the earliest methods of long-distance communication.

Wikipedia reports that “The smoke signal is one of the oldest forms of long-distance communication. It is a form of visual communication used over a long distance. In general smoke signals are used to transmit news, signal danger, or to gather people to a common area.” The use of smoke signals by the indigenous peoples of North America are probably the most familiar to Americans thanks to the popularization of western history in published and broadcast media.

Frederic S. Remington (1861-1909); The Smoke Signal; 1905; Oil on canvas; Amon Carter Museum of American Art, Fort Worth, Texas; 1961.250

This method of communication has been the basis for much humor as well:

Charles Addams, The New Yorker
Lucky Luke – “La Diligence” (Dargaud, 1968 series) #32 by Morris and Goscinny

The joke here is that a single puff of smoke or one beat of a drum can communicate large quantities of information, which of course is not the case.

One of the most stirring cinematographic representations of optical telegraphy can be found in Peter Jackson’s version of J.R.R. Tolkien’s “The Two Towers,” where the beacons of Gondor – signal fires strategically placed on mountaintops – played a crucial role in summoning Rohan’s forces to help Gondor. 

The Beacons of Gondor

Once electricity came on the scene, the electrical telegraph, augmented by Morse Code, became the dominant method of rapid long-distance communication, and was the underpinning of the telegram system for which Western Union became so famous.

Telegrams – about which I have written elsewhere – were used for everything where information had to be transmitted rapidly, from business meetings, to military applications, to notifications of death, to congratulations on Broadway, and countless other uses.

Telegram sent to my mother from ANTA (American National Theater and Academy) wishing her good luck in “For Heaven’s Sake, Mother” on November 16, 1948. Sadly, the play only ran for four days.

So when the telephone made its debut on the world stage, Western Union supposedly turned up its nose and sniffed loftily that it was not anything worthy of consideration. While the invention of the telephone, followed by the modern Internet and the proliferation of smartphones, ultimately doomed the telegram to the vaults of history, at the time concern about the new technology was real. The supposed internal memo at Western Union, however, was not. A lovely article at Wondermark discusses the origins of this urban legend in great detail and is worth the read if such things interest you.

Be aware, however, that even the telegraph itself was met with skepticism by shortsighted individuals:

“I watched his face (Samuel F.B. Morse) closely to see if he was not deranged, and was assured by other Senators as we left the room that they had no confidence in it either.”

-Senator Oliver Smith of indiana, 1842, after witnessing a first demonstration of the telegraph

The Radio

“The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?” — David Sarnoff’s associates in response to his urgings for investment in the radio in the 1920s.

David Sarnoff was an early pioneer in the promotion of wireless radio as a new technology. I asked Perplexity about the supposed response from investors, and it had this to say:

In summary, although the quote closely reflects real skepticism Sarnoff faced, there is no documented evidence that an investor sent this precise message to him—the wording appears to be apocryphal or retrospective, encapsulating broader contemporary attitudes

Obviously, “fear of the new, from those with a vested interest in the old” (from the Wondermark article linked above) didn’t keep the radio from becoming immensely popular.

The March of Technology

“Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons.” attributed to Popular Mechanics from 1949

This is a true quote, but is often quoted out of context, unlike the quote in the image above. Popular Mechanics was making a forecast based on the technology of that time, suggesting computers could shrink significantly but still be very large by modern standards. This reflected an era when computers were massive and used vacuum tubes. The prediction was reasonable then but didn’t foresee transistor and integrated circuit breakthroughs that led to much smaller, lighter computers. You don’t know what you don’t know.

More about Computers

Once more, this quote is a misinterpretation; a very good background is found here. The short explanation is:

From a question on the history of IBM on their website, “Did Thomas Watson say in the 1950s that he foresaw a market potential for only five electronic computers?” IBM offers the following explanation:

We believe the statement that you attribute to Thomas Watson is a misunderstanding of remarks made at IBM’s annual stockholders meeting on April 28, 1953. In referring specifically and only to the IBM 701 Electronic Data Processing Machine — which had been introduced the year before as the company’s first production computer designed for scientific calculations — Thomas Watson, Jr., told stockholders that “IBM had developed a paper plan for such a machine and took this paper plan across the country to some 20 concerns that we thought could use such a machine. I would like to tell you that the machine rents for between $12,000 and $18,000 a month, so it was not the type of thing that could be sold from place to place. But, as a result of our trip, on which we expected to get orders for five machines, we came home with orders for 18.”

You don’t know what you don’t know

“I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won’t last out the year.”

 -The Editor in Charge of Business Books for Prentice Hall, 1957

“But what … is it good for?

 -Engineer at the Advanced Computing Systems Division of IBM, 1968, commenting on the microchip.

“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” 

-Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977

The three quotes above are not examples of obtuseness or stupidity, but rather the inability to predict the incredible rush of innovation that the computer industry would experience. I have written about the incredible shrinking data storage elsewhere, and even that article is now outdated; SanDisk has introduced a 4TB MicroSD card, whether or not something of this nature is even needed.

There’s nothing new under the sun

“Everything that can be invented has been invented.”

–Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, U.S. Office of Patents, 1899.

This archived article written by Dennis Crouch explores the legend, and decides that the quote was based on a joke published in Punch in 1899:

Silence Please

According to Quote Investigator, Warner probably said this but more confirmation would be useful. The linked article provides some interesting background about resistence to the inclusion of sound and voice in films, which up until that time were entirely silent.

There are many more “boneheaded quotes” out there, but the above dive into some of the most famous is an indication that each one deserves to be investigated for accuracy before spreading them around as 100% accurate.

As Abraham Lincoln famously said:

The Old Wolf has spoken.

WHY SOME TRUMP SUPPORTERS WILL GO DOWN WITH THE SHIP

Re-blogging this because it’s a good read – clear, cogent, and accurate.

“There are two kinds of people who voted for Donald J. Trump in 2024. The first group was conned—they bought the sales pitch, got burned, and are just now starting to realize they were used. Veterans who lost their jobs, farmers who went bankrupt, blue-collar workers whose towns never saw the economic boom Trump promised—they’re pissed off, and rightfully so.

But then there’s the second group.

The ones who will never wake up. The ones who, no matter how many times Trump lies, betrays, fails, or humiliates them, will stand by him until the bitter end. They will make excuses, twist logic into knots, ignore reality, and cling to their delusions with both hands—because admitting the truth would break them.

These people aren’t victims of Trump anymore. They’re willing participants in their own destruction.”

Read the full post at Closer to the Edge on Substack.

The Old Wolf has recommended

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Those Facebook “Sponsored” posts

Ad-blockers and FB Purity or Social Fixer are pretty much “de rigueur” these days if you want any sort of a sane experience on Facebook. Sadly, those conveniences don’t exist for the mobile platform. And since I pretty much use my phone for everything for the most part, I’m assailed with a news feed that is about 10% things I want to see from my friends, family, and groups I like, and the rest is ads (mostly scams), promoted posts (mostly clickbait), and groups that I have no interest in (Facebook’s insane, desperate bid for more engagement – meaning more clicks and eyeballs on advertisements.)

I’ve had one or two good experiences buying things from FB ads, but I’ve been badly stung by Chinese scammers, and so I’ve sworn those transactions off. Facebook does an abominable job vetting their advertisers, and they’ll take money from anyone who has two coppers to rub togrther. Combine that with the facts that far too many Chinese businesses have all the ethics of a starving honey badger and the CCP encourages businesses to take advantage of America, and Facebook’s advertising landscape becomes worse than the lawless Old West.

But leaving the outright criminal scams aside, far too many of Facebook’s promoted posts are designed to serve up as many advertisements as possible. Look at a few examples that I’ve scraped off of Facebook just in the last two days:

Notice first of all that the entity making the post is simply linking to another website, usually one dedicated to serving advertisements and scraping information from visitors. If there’s no direct relationship between the poster and the link site, then these entities are simply functioning as affiliate marketers.

Make no mistake, some of these websites provide some interesting information and visiting them can be very entertaining, but if you do happen to click through to these websites out of curiosity, you will find one or two things that make your experience there a lot less than fun, if you’re trying to find out the story behind the ad.

Many of these sites are broken up into 50 or 60 different sub-page, so that every time you click on “next” you get a whole new crop of ads to look at. The ones that aren’t like this will have you scrolling and scrolling and scrolling until the heat death of the universe, with an advertisement inbetween each factoid. And most annoyingly, many of these lists don’t even contain anything about the image or story that got you to click in the first place, or else the hook is much less intriguing than they make it out to be.

Clickbait has been with us for a couple of decades at least. The term was coined in December 2006 by Jay Geiger in a blog post, and refers to treating internet users as prey, lured into clicking nonsensical content for the purpose of getting eyeballs on advertisements. Sadly, Facebook is one of the largest disseminators of clickbait, and recently they have taken to displaying more and more TikTok reels which, instead of being informative or entertaining, are simply more advertising.

So some might ask, in the voice of Tevye, “If it’s so annoying, why do you stay on Facebook?” Well, I stay because Facebook is my Internet home, where many of my family and friends from all over the world are found, and it’s the most convenient way of keeping in touch with them until something better comes along. Like Anatevka, it’s not much… but it’s better than nothing. That said, if there ever happens to be a better platform that doesn’t treat its user base as product to be sold, I’ll be “off like a jug handle.”

The Old Wolf has spoken.